On Thursday 22nd October, British Ambassador Martin Uden will travel to the Blue House to deliver a map showing the expected impact of a 4°C (7°F) rise in global temperature compared with pre-industrial levels.  It shows the serious changes in water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, forest fires and sea level rise, expected if world leaders do not agree how to tackle the problem of climate change.

Dr Han Wha-Jin, Senior Presidential Secretary for the Environment, will receive the map along with a letter from British Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, in which he calls for action at the UN climate change negotiations in Copenhagen this December.   

In the letter, the Foreign Secretary stressed that 'the map demonstrates why we need a global agreement at Copenhagen that will keep warming to a maximum of two degrees.' He urged other countries, including South Korea, to build momentum and create the global political will to secure the ambitious, fair and effective global deal that we need at Copenhagen.

Martin Uden, British Ambassador to Seoul said before his call on the Blue House:

"This meeting is especially important and timely for Korea and the UK since both countries met in London earlier this week at the Major Economies Forum to discuss the momentous choice open to the world at Copenhagen. It is important that Korea and the UK work both domestically and internationally, to create the conditions for success. I hope we will be able to work closely together at all levels in pursuit of this common aim."

 

Notes for Editors

 

1. The map was produced by the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre in the UK, drawing together contributions from 27 leading scientists. It represents the latest peer-reviewed science on the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4 °C (7 °F) above the pre-industrial climate average. It shows that this average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe.  The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases.  The average land temperature will be 5.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
    
2. Further information on the science of the map can be found at www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/effects/
    
3. The online version of the 4 degree world map provides an interactive web tool which allows the user to focus on certain impacts, geographies and access more information about the science behind the map. The map is available to be embedded on any website and the embed code can be accessed at www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/4degrees from 22nd October.
    
4. Map projection
   The map projection was generated using Met Office Hadley Centre's HadCM3 QUMP ensemble model runs, for the A1B and A1FI Scenarios for all the models that showed a global average temperature rise of +4 ºC before the end of the century .  There were 23 runs in total, and these were averaged at the point they each reached a +4 ºC rise.  This projection does not therefore represent a particular point in time, as each model reached +4 ºC at a different time.
    
5. Impacts
   Things to note include the higher temperatures over land compared to the sea, and the extreme temperature increases in the Arctic.   The average land temperature is 5.5 deg C above pre-industrial.
   
   The impacts featured in this poster are not an exhaustive list.  A selection of impacts was chosen to cover the major headline themes, (water, food, etc.), but not every impact across the globe is covered.  The selection of the results was also chosen to reflect some of the research that is going on across the UK since IPCC, and work that has looked in particular at what high-end climate change would mean.
   
   The poster focuses on human impacts.  Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity have been deliberately excluded.  The only exception is the information about Amazon die-back, which is there because it also represents a significant economic loss to the region.
   
   Climate feedback processes are also excluded from the poster.  So although the melting of the permafrost is mentioned, and Amazon die back, no mention is made about the contribution this will have on accelerating future climate change.
   
6. Highlights areas of research in UK.
   All the impacts make the assumption of a population rise consistent with the A1B emission scenario.  This means that the impacts are all mutually compatible.

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